International Tourists Growth Forecast for 2020-2022

Subject: Finance
Pages: 2
Words: 298
Reading time:
< 1 min

Table 1 shows that historical trend starting from the year 1950 to 2010. Based on the historical data, it can be concluded that a direct correlation exists between the international tourism arrivals (Y) and the international tourism receipts (X). A linear regression model can be used to forecast the trend of international tourism based on the data given in table 1. Upon application of the regression model, we get the following empirical relation between the independent (X) and dependent variables (Y).

Years International Tourism Arrivals (millions) International Tourism Receipts (US$ millions)
1950 25.3 2,100
1960 69.3 6,867
1970 159.7 17,900
1980 284.8 102,372
1985 321.2 116,158
1990 454.8 255,000
1995 567.0 372,000
2000 696.8 477,000
2001 692.6 463,600
2005 806.0 680,000
2010 940.0 868.400
2020 1560.0
2021
2022
Table 1 International Tourism Arrivals: The Historical Trend Year

Upon application of the above equation, following the trend is observed in the international tourists, as shown in Table 2 only previous twenty-year data was used for predicting the tourist influx because the historical data shows high non-linearity based on the various economic crisis, which might not affect the results.

Years International Tourism Arrivals (millions) International Tourism Receipts (US$ millions)
2020 1560.00 1,326,053.80
2021 1287.22 1,073,879.28
2022 1400.92 1,178,995.96
Table 2 International Tourism Arrival